Writes and Write-Nots

October 2024 2024 年 10 月

I'm usually reluctant to make predictions about technology, but I feel fairly confident about this one: in a couple decades there won't be many people who can write.
我通常不愿意对技术做出预测，但关于这一点，我相当自信：在几十年后，能写的人将寥寥无几。

One of the strangest things you learn if you're a writer is how many people have trouble writing. Doctors know how many people have a mole they're worried about; people who are good at setting up computers know how many people aren't; writers know how many people need help writing.
如果你是一个作家，你会学到最奇怪的事情之一就是有多少人写作有困难。医生知道有多少人担心他们身上的痣；擅长设置电脑的人知道有多少人不会；作家知道有多少人需要写作上的帮助。

The reason so many people have trouble writing is that it's fundamentally difficult. To write well you have to think clearly, and thinking clearly is hard.
许多人写作困难的原因在于这本身就是一个根本性的难题。要写得好，你必须思路清晰，而清晰思考是件困难的事情。

And yet writing pervades many jobs, and the more prestigious the job, the more writing it tends to require.
然而，写作渗透到许多工作中，而且职位越重要，往往需要的写作就越多。

These two powerful opposing forces, the pervasive expectation of writing and the irreducible difficulty of doing it, create enormous pressure. This is why eminent professors often turn out to have resorted to plagiarism. The most striking thing to me about these cases is the pettiness of the thefts. The stuff they steal is usually the most mundane boilerplate — the sort of thing that anyone who was even halfway decent at writing could turn out with no effort at all. Which means they're not even halfway decent at writing.
这两种强大的对立力量——无处不在的写作期望和难以克服的写作难度，造成了巨大的压力。这就是为什么杰出的教授们常常会陷入剽窃的境地。对我来说，这些案例中最引人注目的是盗窃的微不足道。他们偷的东西通常是些最普通的套话——任何稍微有点写作能力的人都能轻松写出，毫不费力。这意味着他们甚至都不算半个合格的写作者。

Till recently there was no convenient escape valve for the pressure created by these opposing forces. You could pay someone to write for you, like JFK, or plagiarize, like MLK, but if you couldn't buy or steal words, you had to write them yourself. And as a result nearly everyone who was expected to write had to learn how.
直到最近，这些对立力量造成的压力还没有一个方便的出口。你可以像肯尼迪一样花钱让别人帮你写，或者像马丁·路德·金一样剽窃，但如果你不能购买或窃取文字，你就必须自己写。因此，几乎所有被期望写作的人都必须学会如何写作。

Not anymore. AI has blown this world open. Almost all pressure to write has dissipated. You can have AI do it for you, both in school and at work.
现在不再是这样了。人工智能已经打开了这个世界。几乎所有的写作压力都已经消散。你可以让 AI 帮你完成写作，无论是在学校还是工作中。

The result will be a world divided into writes and write-nots. There will still be some people who can write. Some of us like it. But the middle ground between those who are good at writing and those who can't write at all will disappear. Instead of good writers, ok writers, and people who can't write, there will just be good writers and people who can't write.
结果将是一个分为“会写”和“不会写”的世界。仍然会有些人会写。我们中的一些人喜欢这样。但那些擅长写作的人和那些根本不会写的人之间的中间地带将消失。不再是优秀的作家、普通的作家和不会写的人，而只有优秀的作家和不会写的人。

Is that so bad? Isn't it common for skills to disappear when technology makes them obsolete? There aren't many blacksmiths left, and it doesn't seem to be a problem.
这难道不好吗？当技术使技能过时时，技能消失不是很常见吗？现在剩下的铁匠已经不多了，这似乎也不是一个问题。

Yes, it's bad. The reason is something I mentioned earlier: writing is thinking. In fact there's a kind of thinking that can only be done by writing. You can't make this point better than Leslie Lamport did:
是的，这是不好的。原因是我之前提到过的：写作就是思考。事实上，有一种只有通过写作才能进行的思考。你无法比 Leslie Lamport 做得更好来阐述这个观点：

If you're thinking without writing, you only think you're thinking.
如果你只是思考而不写作，你只是在自以为在思考。

So a world divided into writes and write-nots is more dangerous than it sounds. It will be a world of thinks and think-nots. I know which half I want to be in, and I bet you do too.
所以一个分为“写者”和“非写者”的世界比听起来更危险。这将是一个“思考者”和“非思考者”的世界。我知道我想站在哪一边，我打赌你也一样。

This situation is not unprecedented. In preindustrial times most people's jobs made them strong. Now if you want to be strong, you work out. So there are still strong people, but only those who choose to be.
这种情况并非史无前例。在工业化之前，大多数人的工作使他们变得强壮。现在，如果你想变得强壮，你就去锻炼。所以仍然有强壮的人，但只有那些选择这样做的人。

It will be the same with writing. There will still be smart people, but only those who choose to be.
写作也将如此。仍然会有聪明人，但只有那些选择成为聪明人的人。

Thanks to Jessica Livingston, Ben Miller, and Robert Morris for reading drafts of this.
感谢 Jessica Livingston、Ben Miller 和 Robert Morris 阅读了这篇稿子的草稿。